Steven Sahiounie, journalist and political commentator
Lebanon has rejected any extension of the Israeli occupation of its territory. On Thursday, President Joseph Aoun reaffirmed that "Lebanon is intensifying diplomatic efforts to ensure Israel's withdrawal by February 18."
Aoun said that the country was actively engaging with influential global powers, particularly the US and France, to secure a sustainable resolution.
On Thursday, Israeli Strategic Affairs Minister Ron Dermer announced that Israel would retain control over five strategic high points inside Lebanon following the expiry of the ceasefire next Tuesday, and added "The army will not withdraw in the near future."
Steven Sahiounie of MidEastDiscourse interviewed Karim Bitar, an Associate Research Fellow at the Institute for International and Strategic Affairs in Paris (IRIS) and Editor of French monthly public affairs magazine L'ENA hors les murs.
1. Steven Sahiounie (SS): Recently, the US deputy presidential special envoy to the Middle East, Morgan Ortagus, delivered a message to Lebanese Prime Minister Nawaf Salam that US President Donald Trump will not tolerate any Hezbollah or Amal member in the government. However, after she left Salam appointed five Shiites. In your opinion will his affect the relationship with US?
Karim Bitar (KB): Regarding the US envoy's visit to Lebanon, it is rather significant to notice that even some of the staunchest US allies in Lebanon were offended by her statements. I'm thinking in particular of former Prime Minister Fouad Siniora, who is very close to the United States and to the West and who is one of Hezbollah's major opponents in Lebanon. Even Fouad Siniora said that these statements were way out of line and that they created a new obstacle that Lebanon did not need at this stage.
So, Mrs. Ortega is discovering the world of Middle East politics. She has strong opinions and has often expressed strong support for Israel, and this was to be expected. But, to come to the Lebanese Presidential Palace and decide who should or should not be a member of the Lebanese government, and say she was grateful for what Israel did at a time when many Lebanese lost family members and are still grieving, it was poorly received by an overwhelming majority of the Lebanese. The President of the Republic distanced himself from her statements, saying that she only represented her own point of view, and that they were not going to be influenced by it.
Now, to a certain extent, these new hawkish US positions might have played a role in government formation. But both the President and Prime Minister did not agree to completely exclude a significant part of the population from the government.
So, they proceeded. They indeed appointed five Shiites, four of them being very close to Hezbollah or Amal, while not being officially card-carrying members.
So the United States today is coming back to this power politics, Machtpolitik, as the Germans say. They are not even paying lip service to democracy promotion, human rights, or international law. They are trying to show who's the boss.
2. SS: The Israeli occupation continues to violate the Lebanese ceasefire daily. In your opinion, will Hezbollah take military action against Israel?
KB: If the US does not take into consideration the Lebanese realities, it might indeed lead the Israeli government, and the Israeli extremists currently in office, to think that they can continue occupying parts of Lebanon and violating the cease-fire. So, both the Lebanese President and the Lebanese Prime Minister also insisted that Israel should withdraw from Lebanon.
But, it appears that PM Benjamin Netanyahu and President Trump have basically decided that it's okay not to respect this deadline. As to the second part of your second question, I do not think that this will lead Hezbollah to take military action against Israel at this stage.
Hezbollah has been severely weakened militarily. Any military action against Israel will lead to overwhelming reprisals. Hezbollah is still in a state of shock. Hassan Nasrallah's funeral has not been organized yet. However, Hezbollah still can count on the support of a significant number of Lebanese Shiites. So, they are weakened militarily, but politically they still have significant leverage within Lebanon.
3. SS: The Lebanese army has been tasked with keeping the southern border safe, keeping Hezbollah north the Litani river, and keeping the border with Syria safe. In your point of view, does the Lebanese army have the resources and funding to be able to carry out their duty?
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