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Since the spring of 1994 I have worked on the fact that the secular downward trend in long-term yield would, at some point, bring a market crash.
I have resolved the famous Greenspan Conundrum as I discovered that long-term yields decrease with the increase of income/wealth gap. Hence income distribution is an important factor of macro economic development.
I have developed a model of the yield curve that describe long-term yields as options on shorter term yields.
My conclusion was that when a "inverted' yield curve, as it would necessary be, would return to its fair value it will trigger a market crash which under the circumstances of a 0% short-term interest would be of major consequences.
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