The world is in another Cold War, which means the great powers aren't cooperating on a rules-based international order.
It's a sad situation, considering the progress made toward a desirable international order in the latter years of the first Cold War and the years after it. Writer Vincent Fernandes gives us an idea of how this has spilled over into the nuclear weapons realm in his story "As Geopolitical Relations Deteriorate, Nuke Nations Start Strengthening their Arsenals." He said: "The nine nuclear-armed states-- the United States, Russia, the United Kingdom, France, China, India, Pakistan, the Democratic People's Republic of Korea (North Korea), and Israel-- continued to modernize their nuclear arsenals and several deployed new nuclear-armed or nuclear-capable weapon systems in 2023. From the estimated 12, 121 inventory of warheads across the globe in January, about 9,585 were in military stockpiles for potential use. Of them, around 3,904 warheads were deployed with missiles and aircraft-- 60 more than in January 2023-- and the rest were in central storage. Around 2100 of the deployed warheads were kept in a state of high operational alert on ballistic missiles."
The world Fernandes outlined would scare anyone with a little common sense. Although fewer people in the world have been killed in warfare since the 1700s, the killing methods have become more lethal-- just read Fernandes's story. What's the answer? We should look to our history for an answer.
When the world was engulfed in World War II, President Franklin Roosevelt had a vision. Roosevelt talked about the Four Policemen or the United Nations. He had a vision of peace and international law based on the world's power distribution. FDR thought that US, Soviet Russia, the United Kingdom, and China could police the world.
The Four Policemen would be responsible for keeping order within their spheres of influence: Britain in its empire and Western Europe; the Soviet Union in Eastern Europe and the central Eurasian landmass; China in East Asia and the Western Pacific; and the United States in the Western Hemisphere. As a preventive measure against new wars, countries other than the Four Policemen were to be disarmed, keeping only a token military force. Only the four policemen would be allowed to possess more powerful weapons than rifles. FDR's vision for the organization consisted of three branches: an executive branch with the Big Four, an enforcement branch composed of the same four great powers acting as the Four Policemen, and an international assembly representing other nations.
The Four Policemen might have worked had the murderous Soviet Leader Joseph Stalin not occupied Eastern Europe and turned those states into Soviet satellites, kicking off the first Cold War. What could have been? The US, Soviet Russia, China, and the UK could have policed the world together, with each power balancing each other at times. FDR thought the US could use China to balance Soviet Russia. The idea went up in smoke when China entered the Soviet orbit in the first Cold War. Of course, it joined the American orbit in the 1970s. With each power cooperating and balancing, there would have been no need for arms races between great powers as we've seen in the two cold wars, and there would be no need for the major powers to kill each other off every generation, like the two world wars.
Arms control between the major powers is now an afterthought in the current international environment. Despite the geopolitical conflict over Ukraine and Taiwan, there should be a conference of world powers-- China, Russia, the US, the UK, and the European Union. It will most likely be an icebreaker meeting, but it should end with an agreement to meet again.
Perhaps, in time, there could be some rudimentary arms control. Give it more time, and maybe more arms control will emerge. Eventually, as Cold War tensions fade, an international security arrangement could emerge, and there would be four policemen-- Russia, China, the US, and the UK/European Union, each with a sphere of influence. I know I'm engaging in wishful thinking, with the China/Russia orbit acting as belligerent as can be and backing totalitarian and authoritarian countries around the world. However, the world, needs a map, and I honestly feel the future map lies in our history - the Four Policemen.
