2. The Panic in Mariupol: As I wrote before, the threat on the outskirts of the city was multiplied by the confusion in the area, so when one of the Junta armored columns retreating from Novoazovsk was mistaken for militia, this led to the hysteria of "DPR tanks are just about to roll into Mariupol!". Hence the traffic jams of civilians and junta soldiers at the highway to Berdaynsk, people thought Mariupol would be taken today and in a panic rushed out of the city. Interestingly, when it came to running, the nationalist guard units easily outpaced the civilians, leaving just one punitive battalion and the remnants of police forces to defend Mariupol. This story is very significant in the sense that it clearly shows how panic sweeps the entire management system - from the lowest neo-Nazi of the "Azov" battalion to the Gauleiter (chief overseer -- ger.) of Mariupol. In reality, advance militia groups are fighting on the outskirts of Mariupol, and Junta is reporting that they are about to create a reliable line of defense and stop militia forces from entering Mariupol (Novoazovsk is already written off, apparently).
3. South-west of Donetsk there is a gaping hole in the junta frontline, with nothing available to close it. Most of the supply routes of the southern junta battle group are intercepted by the militia, or under fire and thus impassable. Junta's situation is rapidly deteriorating and can potentially develop into more than just another encirclement with heavy losses - but a full-blown disaster with the collapse of the entire southern front of Junta forces in Donbass. In the next few days the militiamen are expecting enemy reserves from the rest of Ukraine, which are now hastily redeployed to reverse the effects of militia breakthroughs. Given that the forces of militia are not so large, heavy defensive battles against shock mechanized battle groups trying to break the encirclement are likely. As you can understand, there is no possibility of a continued assault on Donetsk anymore.
Taking this into account, the defeat of the junta to the south of Donetsk will have implications for other areas - the militia forces are moving towards Debalcevo and thinking about attacking Artemovsk and Konstantinovka. But as the main forces are occupied in other areas, any action there is mainly just to pin junta forces in place.
4. There is also this
unverified information. In the Rostov region, there were a series of
bizarre murders on the M4 highway. Unknown criminals lay out a strip
with nails across the asphalt, and then shoot the drivers that come out
to see what was the matter. They do not take the cars, or personal
belongings of those killed. There were 3 or 4 such cases. There is a
suspicion that there may some Ukrainian Neo-Nazis at work. We are
checking the information.
Overall, we are seeing the war in the Donbass completely change direction, in real time. But the victory is not yet assured, and in the coming days, the junta will do everything possible to turn this difficult situation in their favor.
Original article: colonelcassad.livejournal.com/1751389.html UPDATE
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