Hezbollah has been seen by Lebanese of various religious sects as defenders of the security of Lebanon. However, corruption and excesses of most of the Lebanese political groups have led to decreasing public support. Many Lebanese have felt Hezbollah should not have supported and defended the Palestinians of Gaza while Israel has killed about 47,000 people there since October 7, 2023.
Unemployment and poverty have reached exceptionally high levels and the delivery of critical public services such as water and electricity have been disrupted.
Lebanon is burdened with hosting the largest number of Syrian refugees per capita in the world, amidst dwindling resources.
The IMF saw some progress on monetary and fiscal reforms, including the implementation of a tight fiscal policy and plans to unify exchange rates.
Steven Sahiounie of MidEastDiscourse interviewed Leila Nicolas, a Professor of International Affairs and International Law at the Lebanese University and the Lebanese Army. She is also a writer and commentator on several media outlets about global affairs and MENA issues. Her Latest book, "Global and regional strategies in the Middle East: In pursuit of Hegemony" (Routledge, 2025).
1. Steven Sahiounie (SS): Lebanon has just elected a president and a prime minister after more than two years without a president. In your opinion, would this have happened without foreign intervention?
Leila Nicolas (LN): Absolutely not. It has been two years since President Michel Aoun left office, and the Lebanese parliament had not elected a new president despite many attempts. Pressure from the US, France, and Saudi Arabia played a significant role in the recent elections. The political deadlock might have persisted without this external influence, given the deep-seated sectarian divisions and the vested interests of various factions.
2. SS: Israel is breaking the ceasefire every day while the Lebanese government and the international community stays silent. In your opinion, can President Aoun put an end to this, or is the war going to start again?
LN: President Aoun's ability to influence Israel's actions is limited. While he can call for international support and pressure, the ultimate decision lies with Israel's interests and Trump's decision to call for a complete withdrawal and application of the ceasefire agreement.
3. SS: Lebanon is going through a serious economic crisis. In your point of view, do you see the World Bank and the Arab oil-rich countries helping Lebanon in this crisis?
LN: Lebanon's economic recovery and reconstruction will rely on ongoing and coordinated support from the Arab Gulf states. The decision to assist Lebanon is influenced by political factors, particularly the position of the United States. For the US to provide its approval for such support, it will require the disarmament of Hezbollah and a reduction of the group's influence in Lebanon's political landscape.
4. SS: Mainstream media, and the pro-US politicians in Lebanon, are claiming that Hezbollah has lost the war, and is defeated. In your opinion, how should Hezbollah and its allies respond to these accusations?
LN: Hezbollah suffered severe losses, yet it was not defeated. Its resilience, the continued support it receives from its base and its political share in the Lebanese parliament make it the most powerful party in Lebanon to date.
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