We are NOT entering into an age of oil abundance, rather, we are on a plateau of production. What comes next is relentless decline.
How this relates to the interests of Wall Street and the multi-national corporations, is straightforward: The costs of oil have been increasing in tandem with the decline in the NET energy available from it. Oil half a century ago had an energy returned on energy invested (EROEI) of about 100 to 1. That is, one barrel equivalent of energy would produce 100 of oil. Now, this is only about 10:1 and declining fast. For the much hyped oil sands and the "tight" oil within them, net EROEI may be LESS than 2:1! (5) Canadian tar sands oil has an EROEI of about 5:1. (6)
Given the constant decline in available energy for industry, corporate profits have been maintained by reducing workers' wages. Job outsourcing, (which is a form of labor arbitrage, since labor in not generally mobile across national borders) has enabled the fossil fueled economic system to remain profitable for decades. In the late 1990's, when profitable investments in manufacturing began declining again, Wall Street turned to financialization of the economy to create paper wealth that did not have actual goods or services attached. One bubble after another--dot com, housing, and now, fracking--were artificially created to allow for the ultimate transfer of wealth from ordinary people to financial and corporate elites.
Presently, these, "too big to fail" financial and corporate institutions possess vast mountains of debt. These debts cannot be paid back however, because the economy consists of energy flows--actual wealth is created by performing work and not by inflating bubbles.
Growth of financialized assets has been central to apparent economic growth. However, these "assets" are paper, not tangible wealth. To be worth anything, these assets must be exchanged for future productivity. Yet declining EROEI, in tandem with stagnant and soon to decline oil production, means that there will exist LESS wealth in the future. Therefore, these paper assets cannot be reclaimed for value in the future.
The entire economic system will implode once this is realized. With it, will go America's domination of the planet.
When will this realization be inevitable? Many analysts expect fracked oil and gas production to begin to decline about 2016-17. This because of very high decline rates in fracked wells--typically about 70 to 80 percent--in the FIRST year. (7) It is unlikely that it will be possible to sustain the illusion of growth after 2017.
America's elite rulers realize this. They realize that a rising China, worse yet, a rising China aligned with Russia, presents a challenge to their control and manipulation of the planet's wealth.
Their response is visible in Ukraine. Russia MUST be taken over for its vast mineral and fossil fuel wealth. In furtherance of this goal, Ukraine is to be wrested into the Western, NATO orbit. The sanctions against Russia are designed to undermine Putin with his own financial and business elites--leading to his removal and the installation of a puppet government which will facilitate western looting of Russia's vast resource base. In return, Russian elites will be permitted to profit off of the destruction of their nation, its people, and its resources.
With Russia under control, China will have lost its major ally against American elite domination. Its new Silk Road projects designed to link the economies of all of Eurasia will come to nothing. Germany will not be permitted to be the western terminus of a 21st century Silk Road. In fact, this seems to have been the primary reason for monitoring German Chancellor Angela Merkel's cell phone.
EVERYTHING of significance across the planet, is happening either to further, or to block, this global corporatist agenda. Our elite masters MUST move quickly before the fracking boom's bust undermines them. This suggests that they will do ANYTHING to quickly prevail. And THAT suggests that a global war is nearly at hand. In fact, its preliminary skirmishes are already underway.
1) http://ancienthistory.about.com/od/peloponnesianwar/qt/073009CausesofPeloponnesianWar.htm
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