Despite the best efforts of informed minds such as Al Gore and Lester Brown, the the vast majority of the body of politics, hasn't been able to hear the 'inconvenient truth' --let alone act on it with urgency. America, still consuming more than 20% of the worlds resources, curiously exempted itself from Kyoto, the urge to develop China has polluted vast ecological resources, hundreds of coal plants are still being built, and most politicians have never seen a dollar they don't like (and have thus sold their souls to the vested (corporate) interests and destroyed democracy). Next year, 2010 China's CO2 emissions will start to exceed those of the US. Things have been stuck.
Until now: the time of the worldwide economic crisis: long simmering, but showing itself starting in 2007, growing into 2009 and probably reaching its low point in my estimate not until 2011 or 2012 -- if it stops there at all. In 2008 the worlds GDP dropped by almost 3% and, in its footsteps so did CO2 emissions. Optimistically stated: since we assumed an increase of about 3% and we actually got about a 3% decrease, CO2 emissions have dropped 6% in one year compared to what was expected. Say the crisis lasts another 3 years or so, and economic activity recedes accordingly, we can expect a drop of let's say another 10% to 15% or so in CO2 emissions. I just found some graphs from Lester Brown and his Earth Policy institute that thinks that emissions have dropped since 2007 by a whopping 9%. That is very significant.
Here is the graph for the US--look at the funny tail at the end. This drop-off, if it continues, will bring us back to the CO2 emissions in the mid 90s:
As a consequence, in the last year many plans for new coal plants have been shelved -- there may not be any demand. Nobody is consuming in quite the same way any longer since people's budgets are limited and debt is seen in a different light: debt has become real since the days of easy credit based on housing hilarity are over for good. The recession succeeds where the politicians failed: a much needed drop in CO2 emissions. Clearly nature itself could be one of the 'winners' and CO2 may be brought back in line from about 390 ppm to the desirable 350 ppm by say 2040 (optimistically), not though the success of politicians, but through their failure.
I point this 'positive side effect' of the recession out -- reduced CO2 -- not to make light of human suffering during this transition when we see the end of capitalism in sight. Budgets are constrained due to lack of currency flow throughout the system, any credit is sucked into the hole of credit default swaps, while food reserves in storehouses have been strained to the max. In the resulting smaller and larger 'resource wars' there is very little consideration for the population itself -- in fact many warlords feed on chaos and anomy -- with failed states on the rise: think of Iraq or the Horn of Africa or Sub-Sahara or Afghanistan, some say even the US itself (and the list goes on and on) with countless dispossessed people on the run and war and violence becoming a way of live. Top that scenario off with Global 'Weirding' and its endless parade of droughts and floods and suddenly there are a lot of people driven out of their houses and off the land...... a flood of refugees, perhaps over a billion, is on its way.
from climate.....
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