Below the surface of a seemingly stable society and once-popular government was a roiling antagonism that was just waiting for a catalyst to bring it alive in the streets. The catalyst was the way the Erdogan government sanctioned extreme police rioting and brutality against the young people and others who wanted to save the Gezi Park trees from the corporate shopping developers in league with government officials. Police behavior was like going after a gnat with a howitzer.
The battle was joined, the police continued their onslaught of tear gas and billy clubs, and similar demonstrations began popping up all over Turkey, directed at government policy and then at the government itself.
TWO SCENARIOS
How this will resolve itself is not clear as of this writing. It seems that Erdogan, who has been democratically elected three times in recent years, thinks he can break the back of the protests with more use of forceful police and militia violence, and so he's not in the mood for any major compromises with his opposition. (As I write this, his forces are moving back into the streets and squares with massive tear gas, water cannons, rubber bullets, and swinging clubs. One has to anticipate deaths in all this.)
If Erdogan is able to crush the nascent rebellion -- which started out in favor of trees and has by now morphed into calls for his resignation -- the rightwing in Turkey (and beyond) will interpret the defeat of the liberal opposition as a mandate to move further, faster in a more conservative, authoritarian direction.
On the other hand, it's possible that Erdogan, in his arrogance, might well overplay his hand by unleashing massive force on the children of the middle-class. That could provoke sympathy for the demonstrators and their cause from more moderate factions in society. A "Turkish-Spring"-like event is not out of the question, albeit unlikely, one that could have serious ripple effects throughout the Greater Middle East.
The next few days and weeks will tell the tale. Fasten your seat belts, it's going to be a bumpy Turkish ride.#
Bernard Weiner, Ph.D. in government & international relations, has taught at universities in California and Washington, worked as a writer/editor with the San Francisco Chronicle for two decades, and currently serves as co-editor of The Crisis Papers (www.crisispapers.org) . To contact: Email address removed"> Email address removed .
Copyright 2013 by Bernard Weiner
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