An NBC News/Wall Street Journal survey found 7 percent of Sanders voters could see themselves supporting Trump. These Sanders supporters share a strong dislike of Hillary Clinton and see both Trump and Sanders as outsiders who understand their economic hardship.
Trump is now pursuing Sanders voters. According to AlterNet's Steven Rosenfeld, Trump has "recited Sanders' critique of trade deals, the Iraq war, Clinton's Goldman-Sachs speeches, and even slammed Medicare prescription drug price gouging as he paints himself on the side of frustrated Americans."
"As he said on the eve of Indiana's primary," Rosenfeld continued. " 'I think a lot of the Bernie Sanders young people are going to join my campaign.' "
Trump may be right. "Forty-four percent of Sanders supporters surveyed said they would rather back the presumptive GOP nominee in November," an exit poll after the West Virginia primary found, "with only 23 percent saying they'd support Democratic front-runner Hillary Clinton." Moreover, "31 percent " would support neither candidate in the likely general election match-up."
Without Sanders in the picture, Trump could run to Clinton's left, broadening his support base and capitalizing on Clinton's weaknesses. On Wall Street corruption, Trump will be able to say that he did not take funds from Wall Street while Clinton has. Trump has proposed taxing Wall Street, whereas Clinton protects the investment class. Trump has come out for raising the minimum wage while Clinton has been slow and hesitant to support raising it to $15 an hour. Sanders has already taken these popular positions, making it harder for Trump to benefit from them if Sanders were in the race.
Even on the issue of militarism, where Clinton is weak, Trump has made some sensible statements against wars that contrast with Clinton's militarist positions. Sanders has run to her left on Iraq, Libya, Syria and Israel, as well as on regime change and military engagement. Jill Stein would bring an even stronger view against intervention and militarism, leaving little room for Trump to take advantage of Hillary's penchant for war, militarism and intervention.
The dynamic of the race would also be different if Sanders is running. Both Sanders and Clinton would have a common opponent in Trump, and each would echo the other's criticism of him. Together, they could prevent Trump from growing his base of support.
Sanders-Stein Could Win 270 Electoral VotesIn April, after the New York primary results came in, Sanders described his winning coalition: "The reason we are doing so much better against Republican candidates is that not only are we winning ... Democratic votes, but we are winning independent votes and some Republican votes as well. That is a point I hope the delegates to the Democratic convention fully understand. In a general election, everyone--Democratic, independent and Republican--has the right to vote for president. The elections are not closed primaries."
Sanders has defeated Trump by more than 14 points in the last 10 polls measuring who would win if they ran against each other. And Sanders and Clinton are neck and neck in national polls. Sanders, the most popular politician in the country, does best among independents and youth and is the strongest general election candidate.
Positive or negative ratings often determine the outcome of the election. Sanders is the only candidate who is generally viewed positively. "Overall, a clear portrait of Sanders emerges that is different from those of the other candidates," Gallup reported. "He has a generally positive image, wins on the 'softer' dimensions of leadership and is above all else seen as caring, enthusiastic and consistent." Further, Sanders "does well across all the [leadership] dimensions, with a more even distribution of perceived leadership characteristics than is the case for the other candidates." In comparison, The Wall Street Journal found that 56 percent of both Trump and Clinton voters said they would cast their vote simply because they didn't want the other candidate to win.
Sanders does better among independents, the new plurality that will decide the election, than Clinton or Trump. In the primaries, he beat Clinton among independents by 29 percent. She has done poorly with independent voters in the primaries thus far and has been unable to win the independent vote in any state other than Alabama.
New voters, especially young ones, are also likely to be a big factor in the outcome of the election, as a Harvard Institute of Politics poll shows. Jill Stein takes strong positions on college debt and tuition, even stronger than Sanders. She is calling for confronting youth tuition debt, not just the current cost of college. The Sanders-Stein team would excite youth because its agenda would positively impact young people's lives. While more difficult to reach, even the poor who have been disenfranchised by the two Wall Street parties may even see hope and come out to vote. Finally, Sanders-Stein could unite all the parties on the left, including Green, Socialist and Progressive parties.
Sanders would also do well enough in polling to ensure the duo's inclusion in the presidential debates. Standing side-by-side with Clinton and Trump would position Sanders well and reach an audience of 60 million. Everything could change with those debates, and the legitimacy of the Sanders-Stein campaign would be solidified. Once people see their potential to win, their numbers would increase. Sanders has already built an impressive national organization of volunteers and donors, and his campaign as a Green Party candidate would be seen as viable by the media and by voters.
The other claim being put forward is that no candidate would get 270 electoral votes and that the Republican-led House of Representatives would then decide the election. History shows this is more fear than reality. As Lawrence Tribe and Thomas Rollins wrote in The Atlantic in 1980--when there was a similar fear that the Reagan-Carter-Anderson race would leave the decision to the House: "[E]xperience teaches that our fears may be more a product of reflex than reflection."
There have been many multi-candidate races in American history, but the last time the House decided the outcome was in 1877--and that was not even because of a multi-candidate race. In fact, the losing candidate won more than 50 percent of the vote. The result got pushed to the House because of fraud. Before that, the House stepped in in 1824, when we had a very different electoral system. Fast-forward to 1992, when Bill Clinton won 40 percent in a three-way race and got 270 electoral vote
In the unlikely event that nobody received a majority of electoral votes, Clinton and Sanders could negotiate before the Electoral College voted on Dec. 15 and avoid a House decision. Tribe and Rollins wrote that "a candidate might simply persuade the electors chosen to support him on November 4 to cast their ballots for someone else. Indeed, electors could do so on their own, since the Constitution makes them free agents."Each candidate could ensure control of how his electors voted by signing a contract with them, as George Wallace did in 1968. Two days before the election, Nixon and Wallace were negotiating on the electors, but then Nixon won the Electoral College and no deal was needed. Imagine what a Sanders-Clinton negotiation could produce.
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