It's important for Americans to recognize the new balance of force: Russia is not shrinking from, and is in fact taking control of, the game of escalation dominance that the U.S. always owned, and, most dangerously, probably thinks it still owns. Russia is no longer intimidated by: "Back off, or I'll ratchet up the aggression," and, in fact is saying "Go ahead. Two can play." It cannot be overstated how dangerous this new confrontational paradigm is, and how quickly it can lead to nuclear war-in order to preserve NATO's unlimited expansion-largely because the Americans just don't believe it.
Best Laid Plans
Nothing is inevitable, once people start smacking each other in the face. I've argued that Russia's assertiveness in recognizing and coming to the defense of the LPR and DPR created a new world situation that will eventually undermine the US/NATO position, and I still think that's true.
But Russia's broad and ambitious offensive across Ukraine carries new risks for it as well. A military victory is often the path to new problems. Every ambitious offensive risks being an example of the Talleyrand quip: "It's worse than a crime. It's an error."
Even ardent Russian supporters like The Saker acknowledge that Russia is losing the information war "by a huge margin," thanks to its tight-lipped attitude about its operations as well as the West's effective control of most of the ideological apparatus of the world-including legacy media and the internet. Russia may be confident that its unpublicized methodical advances will create unavoidable facts and dispel fantastical stories (ghost fighter pilots, heroic island defenders-to-the-death, ruthless car-crushing tanks, etc.) but it's a mistake to cede the potent political ground of narrative management.
On the operational level, Russia has abjured any desire to occupy Ukraine, and I believe that. They're not stupid. I am sure they would like to take care of business, get out, and leave what's left of Ukraine to stew in its own juices. But they have given themselves a lot of business, and their intent threatens to be overrun by the consequences of their operations in the capital and other cities, and by the devilish details of any "de-Nazification" program.
Russia is being careful about minimizing major combat in the cities, but there is likely to be fighting and destruction, especially in Kiev, and the Russians are going to have to a establish new, cooperative Ukrainian authority that they are comfortable leaving behind. This means some measure of control of civil life for some time. All undefined, and full of potential traps.
Then there's the unfortunate fact that fascistic ideology is entwined in western Ukrainian nationalism. It has deep historical roots and has been even more widely propagated since 2014. Father-of-the-country Bandera, "Glory to the Heroes," and all. We're talking swastikas in the mall.
So, any "de-Nazification" is going to have to go wide and deep into society. It's not just a matter of knocking off a few bad apples, and it won't be done in a few weeks. For Russia to take upon itself the task of a thoroughgoing policing and ideological re-education of Ukrainian culture would be supremely foolish. To make the irresistible comparison, it would be like trying to extirpate Islamic fundamentalism from, oh, Afghanistan. Much better to eliminate the worst Nazi militias, get out of western Ukraine as soon as possible, secure the LDPR, and let whatever regime arises in Kiev deal with whatever residual internal fascism is on display for the world to see.
To be sure, Ukrainian fascism is a real and integral part of the problem that Russia is right to target. It's a problem for everybody, especially Europe, that has been nurtured and is being used by the United States, precisely as the U.S. uses ISIS and al-Qaeda elsewhere (to extend the comparison).
Here's the proud fascist leader of C14, a fascist group active in Ukraine since before Maidan, with a name inspired by the 14 words coined by an American neo-Nazi: "We must secure the existence of our people and a future for white children." He doesn't shrink from being identified as "Nazi" and describes exactly what the program is: "We perform the tasks set by the West" because "we have fun killing." He correctly notes that fascist groups were the fighting vanguard of the Maidan insurrection. He also makes clear his contempt for ostensible "values" of Maidan and of the European West that thinks it is using him, as well as his intention to "create problems for the whole world." Yup, just like ISIS. These are the fascist forces the US is arming in Ukraine, against whom the Russians offensive is aimed:
So I'm going to guess that my oh-so-shrewd warnings about the risks of such an ambitious offensive are nothing the Russians have not considered all on their own, and planned for as well as they can within the action they are determined to take.
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